The planning set: business — financial — marketing
🎯 Goal: Build the three minimum planning pieces: a one-page business plan, a 12-month financial projection (with cash flow & runway), and a go-to-market plan for the first 100 customers.
A plan isn’t for show — it’s to turn an idea into numbers and testable steps. Three minimum pieces: (1) a one-page plan — problem, solution, customer, revenue model, advantage; (2) a 12-month financial projection — revenue, costs, and cash flow by month, plus runway; (3) a go-to-market plan — which channel gets your first 100 customers. A good plan is short, has numbers, and gets updated when reality diverges from assumptions. You’ll leave able to compute runway and to tie a projection back to unit economics.
Lesson content
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Three pieces, three jobs. The one-page plan forces you to state the model clearly without hiding behind pretty slides. In the financial projection, the most important thing isn’t revenue but cash flow: many startups profitable on paper still die because they run out of cash before customers pay. Track your runway — months of survival if money keeps going out at the current rate: runway = cash on hand ÷ monthly burn. Go-to-market answers: where do the FIRST 100 customers come from? Don’t dream "everyone is a customer"; pick 1–2 specific channels and focus.
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Build the set in 3 steps: 1) Write the one page: 5 items (problem & customer, solution & value, revenue model, go-to-market, 12-month milestone). 2) Make the projection: revenue = customers × price × purchases (tie to unit economics); costs MUST include CAC; cash flow = cash collected − cash spent. Find the month cash flow turns positive. 3) Compute runway and pick the cheapest go-to-market channel to reach the first 100. Tip: add a "30% slower" scenario to know how much cash to keep in reserve.
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TOOL — One-page plan + 12-month projection frame.
One-page plan — item
Short content
Problem & customer
Who hurts, and how
Solution & value
How you solve it
Revenue model
How money comes in
Go-to-market
First 100 from which channel
12-month milestone
A measurable goal
Projection (by month)
M1
M6
M12
Revenue
10M
60M
150M
Costs
25M
55M
110M
Monthly cash flow
−15M
+5M
+40M
Computing runway (example): with 90M cash and early-month burn of ~15M/month → runway = 90 ÷ 15 = 6 months. Cash flow turns positive around M6, so 90M just barely lasts until break-even — but any delay leaves you short.
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Vietnam case study, step by step: 1) Coolmate goes to market by selling directly via its own online channels + content/social media, then uses order data to forecast and reinvest — rather than burning cash broadly. 2) Ecomobi (two-sided platform) must solve the "chicken-and-egg": usually pull one side (creators) in first to attract the other (brands). 3) Common lesson: projections must tie back to the unit economics from the last lesson — revenue = customers × price × purchases, and costs must include CAC. Drop CAC from costs and the projection becomes "falsely pretty".
⚠️
5 planning traps: • Watching only paper profit, forgetting cash flow — customers pay late while salaries/suppliers must be paid now → out of cash. • Dropping CAC from costs: a pretty revenue projection that actually loses money. • "Customers are everyone": go-to-market targets no one, spreading resources thin. • Only a best-case projection: no plan for when sales run 30% slow. • A 30-page plan nobody reads: thick for show instead of short with numbers.
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Planning-set checklist: ① One-page plan has all 5 items, one line each? ② Projection shows monthly cash flow, not just revenue? ③ Computed runway = cash ÷ monthly burn? ④ Costs include CAC and revenue ties to unit economics? ⑤ Go-to-market picks 1–2 specific channels for the first 100, not "everyone"?
Practice exercise
🔬 APPLIED EXERCISE: Write a one-page plan for your idea (all 5 items), then make a rough 12-month projection with 3 rows: revenue, costs, cash flow (M1/M6/M12 markers). Identify the month cash flow turns positive, compute runway, and pick one go-to-market channel for your first 100 customers with a reason.
Worked template: FILLED EXAMPLE — an online drawing class: the one-pager states the problem (kids love drawing, no class nearby); go-to-market = local parent groups on Facebook; projection M1 revenue 8M/costs 12M (−4M), M12 revenue 50M/costs 35M (+15M). With 30M cash and ~4M/month early burn → runway ≈ 7 months, enough to reach positive cash flow.
Quick quiz
1. In a financial projection, what usually matters most so a startup doesn’t "die suddenly"?
→ Cash flow and runway — how long you survive if cash keeps going out
In a projection, cash flow and runway matter most so you don’t die from running out of cash.
2. What is the purpose of a "one-page" business plan?
→ To state the model concisely, without hiding behind pretty slides
A one-page plan helps you state the model concisely, without hiding behind pretty slides.
3. What core question does "go-to-market" answer?
→ Which channel your FIRST 100 customers come from
Go-to-market answers which channel the FIRST 100 customers come from, focusing instead of spreading thin.
4. Why should a revenue projection tie back to unit economics from the last lesson?
→ Because revenue = customers × price × purchases, and costs must include CAC
Revenue = customers × price × purchases and costs must include CAC, so projections must tie to unit economics.
5. With 90M cash and early-month burn of 15M, what is the runway (months of survival)?
→ 6 months
Runway = cash ÷ burn = 90 ÷ 15 = 6 months of survival if money keeps going out at the current rate.
6. A startup is profitable on paper but customers pay 60 days late while salaries/suppliers are paid now. What’s the biggest risk?
→ Running out of cash (negative cash flow) despite accounting profit — you may die before customers pay
A paper profit can still run out of cash when customers pay late while salaries/suppliers must be paid now.
Advanced
A deeper framework
Accounting profit ≠ cash. A company can book a profit while its account runs dry, because money out (salaries, suppliers, inventory) comes before money in (customers paying later). That’s why you must manage cash flow and runway, not just the profit line.
A good projection always has at least two scenarios: base and "30% slower". Runway in the bad scenario tells you how much cash to reserve, or by which month you must raise/cut costs — turning the plan into an early-warning system, not a static sheet.
Runway across two scenarios
Cash on hand
120M
Base case: burn 20M/month
Runway = 6 months
30%-slower case: burn 26M/month
Runway ≈ 4.6 months
Action
Raise/cut costs before month 4–5, not wait until 6
Runway in the bad scenario is your real safety mark; plan around it, not the best case.
Common trap: “Only a best-case scenario”: the projection draws a smoothly rising revenue line and ignores delays. When reality diverges, cash runs out before you can react. Always compute runway in the "30% slower" case and pre-set the month you must act (raise/cut costs).
Advanced questions
1. Your startup projects a paper profit from month 3, but enterprise customers pay 60 days late while you must pay salaries and suppliers now. What’s the biggest risk?
→ Running out of cash (negative cash flow) despite accounting profit — you may die before customers pay
Accounting profit ≠ cash in the bank. When money out (salaries, suppliers) comes before money in (customers paying after 60 days), cash flow turns negative and runway shrinks; many "profitable" startups still go bankrupt from running out of cash.
2. In the go-to-market plan, your team writes "our customers are everyone". Why is this a bad sign and how to fix it?
→ It’s vague so resources can’t focus; pick 1–2 specific channels/segments to win the first 100 customers, then expand
"Everyone" means targeting no one specific, spreading resources thin and making results hard to measure. A strong go-to-market picks a narrow segment/channel to win the first 100 customers, validate, then expand.
3. With 120M cash: base case burns 20M/month, a 30%-slower case burns 26M/month. Which runway should you plan around?
→ ≈ 4.6 months (slower case) — the real safety mark, act before month 4–5
Runway in the bad case (120 ÷ 26 ≈ 4.6 months) is the real safety mark. Planning around it lets you raise/cut costs in time, instead of trusting the best case and running out of cash unexpectedly.
🎯 Real-life mission
REAL-LIFE MISSION: Write a one-page business plan for your idea (all 5 items). Make a rough 12-month projection with 3 rows — revenue, costs, cash flow (M1/M6/M12 markers) — identify the month cash flow turns positive and compute runway = cash ÷ monthly burn. Finally pick one go-to-market channel for your first 100 customers, and add a "30% slower" scenario to know how much cash to reserve.